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All statistical indicators highlight the fact that the battered housing market is poised for a comeback. According to Case-Shiller calculations, home prices have fallen by eight percent over the past year, which is one far cry from the 20% year-over-year losses during the height of the debacle. The "less bad" price action indicates that stability is upon the horizon. Further, the term "record-low" mortgage rates has become a daily occurrence, as 30-year mortgages broke beneath the five percent mark to hover near 4.75% earlier this year. The increased affordability of both property and loans should spark the market-under normal conditions. Of course, these are not normal times in which we live. Despite these attractive terms, Americans remain unable and unwilling to capitalize. First, many investors that actually wish to buy low amidst the swoon are being shut out of the market-unable to procure loans. Indeed, the Big Banks have upped the ante concerning approval specifications. In light of the credit debacle, bankers are demanding higher credit scores, documentation and down payments to put together deals. Interestingly, even current homeowners seeking refinancing to cut interest charges and save money are being blackballed by high finance as credit risks. On paper, the rejection rate for refinance packages makes little to no sense. Homeowners are actually being denied the option of forking over less money in monthly mortgage payments because of poor credit? Meanwhile, the larger pool of potential buyers remains frozen with paralysis. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)-the U.S. unemployment rate remains at ten percent for able-bodied workers, as of November 2009. However, I would reason that the proportion of both under and unemployed Americans toiling amidst the ranks is well past 25%. Beyond our underutilized segment of the economy, the majority of workers are maximizing their own productivity, or else. In this case, "or else" refers to the pervasive fear of termination for anything short of robot-like efficiency. The job security boogeyman manifests itself within our pocketbooks, as Americans now prioritize passbook savings and debt management over smart risk taking. These happenings call into question the effectiveness of the semi-Nationalization of the U.S. economy. First, were banks actually motivated by bailout money to make loans, or did they simply sit on the force fed capital only to return the funds at a later date? Secondly, what would have been the ramifications had Washington not have imposed blank-check Marshall Law upon the financial system? Lastly, what is to happen if and when Treasury and Fed officials retrench and remove the safeguards of artificially low interest rates, alongside equity stakes in the likes of AIG and complete control of Fannie and Freddie? I must opine that the $2 trillion worth of stimulus packages, buyouts and loans pumped into the U.S. economy has stabilized the market mechanism-allowing it to avert complete disaster. Washington has effectively strengthened the corporate balance sheet at-large. However, government officials are unable to demand that banks make loans to private entities wishing to invest. Meanwhile, deficit hawks will emerge over time and demand that the public debt is repaid-suggesting that Washington has overstepped its boundaries. With these competing interests, I am anticipating that U.S. economic growth continues along its anemic trajectory into the near future. Americans should save more and invest patiently-with the goal of outpacing inflation. Housing - Economic Paradox, Sources: Francine Knowles, Record-low mortgage rates, but many can't refinance, http://www.suntimes.com/business/1959389,mortgage-rates-refinance-122609.article S&P/Case Schiller Home Price Indices, http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us---- BLS, Employment Situation Summary, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm |
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